If a family member asked my advice and they were scheduled to close on a mortgage purchase or refinance in the time periods noted below, I would recommend…
|1-7 Days||8-20 Days||21-45 Days||46 Days Plus|
4:22 PM EST Market News
12:36 PM EST Market News
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up more than 500-points in trading today. The DOW has now moved above the 9,000 mark.
9:53 AM EST Market News
Today the bond market is closed in observance of Columbus Day. That said, later this this week I’m expecting movement in mortgage rates based on the release of September’s Retail Sales report and Producer Price Index (PPI) this Wednesday.
“WOW” is the only word that expresses the speed at which the financial markets moved the last 45 days. Last week the markets were in a once-in-a-generation financial panic. Panics can build quickly, but their resolutions take time. Even though the markets over-reacted, don’t expect things to get back to normal right away. Increased troubles in the financial system have been met by increased efforts from the G-7 central banks and governments.
It’s important to remember, this is not the Great Depression, yet there is certainly some downside for the economy in the near term.
Another key point…consumer spending accounts for over 70% of GDP and all indicators point towards negative 3Q08 growth in the US economy. Part of the third quarter decline in consumer spending represents the dwindling effect of tax rebates in 2Q08. However, the lagged impact of higher energy prices is also a major factor. Higher inflation led to a year-over-year decline in real wages. When that happens, it’s hard realizing growth in real consumer spending when real wage growth is weak. Additionally, a weakening labor market will limit nominal wage growth in the near term.
On the upside, falling energy prices should help mitigate or increase discretionary consumer income. Thus, lower inflation will lift consumer purchasing power.
Also, Central banks and governments have responded very aggressively to the crisis. In the U.S., the Federal Reserve has provided significant liquidity injections through open market operations, expanded existing liquidity facilities, and introduced several new liquidity facilities.